Rising star of Saudi football analytics - Volume 4 Saudi Pro League Progressive Passes
Ahmed Hayyan, the rising star of Saudi football analytics, has unveiled his latest masterpiece in collaboration with Jobs4Football and Mehdaf, Volume 4 titled "Understanding Ball Progression in Football: A Deep Dive into Progressive Passes in the Saudi Pro League 2024-25"
In modern football, ball progression is the lifeblood of attacking play. It involves advancing the ball from defensive areas into attacking zones to break defensive lines and create goal-scoring opportunities. Whether through precise passes, skillful dribbles, or intelligent off-the-ball movements, progression dictates a team's ability to dominate and dictate play.
In this fourth installment of his groundbreaking analytics series, Ahmed Hayyan, in collaboration with Jobs4Football and Mehdaf, focuses on progressive passes in the Saudi Pro League (SPL) for the 2024-25 season. This analysis takes a deep dive into how teams move the ball forward effectively, breaking down defensive setups and creating opportunities to score.
Why Ball Progression Matters
Ball progression is not just about moving the ball forward; it’s about moving it into dangerous areas of the pitch where teams can create goal-scoring chances. Here are three key reasons why ball progression is crucial in football:
1. Creates Scoring Opportunities: Progressive passes transition the ball into advanced positions, putting teams in better positions to score.
2. Breaks Defensive Blocks: Teams often face compact defensive setups, and progressive passes are essential for bypassing these blocks.
3. Defines Team Identity: Different teams use different methods of progression—some prefer short passing sequences like Al Hilal, while others rely on counterattacks or long balls.
The Visualisation
Ahmed Hayyan has created a heatmap that visualizes where progressive passes start for all SPL teams. The data is normalised for relative intensity, revealing key patterns and strategies across teams. This heatmap provides a clear picture of how each team approaches ball progression from different zones on the pitch.
The heatmap breaks the pitch into four key zones, with each zone representing different stages of ball progression. The darker colours indicate higher intensity of progressive passes from that area.
Key Insights from the Analysis
1. Wide Play Dominance
Teams like Al Hilal, Al Ittihad, and Al Taawoun rely heavily on wide areas to progress the ball. These teams use their full-backs and wingers to stretch the opposition’s defence and create space for their attackers. For example, Al Hilal's verticality often sees them progressing through wide channels, utilizing players like Salem Al-Dawsari and Malcom to break through defensive lines.
2. Half-Spaces Mastery by Al Nassr
Al Nassr dominates in half-spaces (the areas between central midfielders and wide players), leveraging creative midfielders like Otávio and Marcelo Brozović to initiate play from these zones. According to Hayyan’s analysis, Al Nassr has the highest intensity of progressive passes from Zone 2, which indicates their reliance on half-spaces to break down defenses.
3. Build-Up Play by Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad focuses on building up from the back, relying on box-to-box players like N'Golo Kanté and Fabinho to progress the ball forward. Their center-backs, particularly players like Saad Al-Amri (88% pass accuracy) and Saad Al-Mousa (93% pass accuracy), anchor their build-up play by distributing accurate long balls to more advanced players.
4. Al Ahli's Direct Approach
While Al Ahli has struggled in other areas this season, they have shown a preference for direct long balls from deeper zones. Their reliance on quick transitions is evident in their progressive passing patterns, indicating a tactical choice that reflects their current performance challenges.
Why Progressive Passing Data Matters
Understanding how teams progress the ball is crucial for both coaches and analysts when developing tactics or preparing for opponents. By analysing progressive passing data:
- Coaches can identify weaknesses in their own build-up play or exploit gaps in opponents' defensive structures.
- Analysts can track how well teams are able to break down compact defenses or transition quickly during counterattacks.
- Fans gain deeper insights into how their favorite teams approach attacking play.
Hayyan’s heatmap offers a unique perspective on how each team in the Saudi Pro League approaches ball progression. For instance, while Al Hilal prefers wide channels for progression, Al Nassr relies heavily on half-spaces—a tactical decision that reflects their midfield strength.
Ahmed Hayyan’s latest analysis once again highlights his ability to provide deep insights into football tactics using data-driven visualisations. As we move further into the 2024-25 season, understanding these patterns will be crucial for teams looking to fine-tune their strategies and gain an edge over their competitors. Whether it's Al Hilal’s reliance on wide play or Al Nassr’s mastery of half-spaces, these insights provide a roadmap for success in currently one of the world’s most exciting football leagues.
Stay tuned as Ahmed Hayyan delivers his next analysis into Saudi Pro League analytics next week.
